China, France and the Fractured World Order: Macron, Xi and the Push to Overcome Differences
In Beijing’s Great Hall of the People, Emmanuel Macron has told Xi Jinping that China and France must overcome their “differences” just as global tensions are pushing the post–Cold War order to its limits. The French president is on a three-day state visit to China, pressing Beijing on Russia’s war in Ukraine, the growing imbalance in trade, and the future of global governance.
The encounter comes at a sensitive moment. China has deepened economic and diplomatic ties with Russia while presenting itself as a neutral actor on Ukraine. Europe is trying to reduce its dependence on Chinese manufacturing without triggering a full-blown trade war. At the same time, France is preparing to take over the presidency of the Group of Seven next year, giving Macron a platform to shape the debate on how democracies deal with Beijing.
This article unpacks what has changed in the relationship between China and France, why Macron is framing the conversation around “differences,” and how this meeting fits into a broader struggle over the rules that govern war, trade, and technology. It examines the diplomatic, economic, social, and security dimensions of the visit, and explores what might follow after the cameras leave Beijing and Chengdu.
At its core, the story turns on whether China and France can turn a fragile partnership into a workable framework for managing rivalry without letting the international order unravel.
Key Points
Macron is in China on a three-day state visit, meeting Xi in Beijing before further talks in Chengdu.
He is urging China to use its influence over Moscow to move toward a ceasefire in Ukraine, as the war nears its fourth year.
Trade tensions are central: the European Union runs a trade deficit with China of roughly €300 billion, and China accounts for nearly half of France’s own trade gap.
Both sides signed a package of agreements in areas such as aerospace, nuclear energy, green technologies, higher education, and panda conservation.
Xi has called for a more “stable” comprehensive strategic partnership and announced significant humanitarian aid for Gaza, while avoiding explicit condemnation of Russia’s invasion.
France will hold the G7 presidency next year, giving this visit outsized significance for wider China–G7 and China–Europe relations.
Background
France and China have been formal partners in a “comprehensive strategic” relationship for years, but the balance of power and trust between them has shifted. Macron has visited China several times since taking office, each trip shaped by a different crisis: the first by trade and climate, another by the immediate fallout from the pandemic, and now by a grinding European war and a fracturing global economy.
On Ukraine, China has called for peace talks and respect for territorial integrity, but it has avoided condemning Russia’s 2022 invasion. Chinese trade and energy purchases have helped cushion Moscow against Western sanctions. European leaders see Beijing as having real leverage over Russia, even if China insists it is merely an impartial mediator.
On trade, the European Union formally describes China as a partner, competitor, and systemic rival all at once. That triple label reflects the contradictions in the relationship. Europe depends on Chinese production for everything from electric vehicles and batteries to solar panels and consumer goods. At the same time, European industries accuse Chinese firms of unfair subsidies and market distortions. Brussels has opened investigations into Chinese electric vehicles, while Beijing has retaliated with probes into European brandy, pork, and dairy exports.
France sits near the heart of this tension. China represents a large share of France’s overall trade deficit, particularly in industrial and consumer goods. Yet French brands—from aerospace and luxury goods to wine and nuclear technology—see China as a vital growth market. Paris wants more reciprocal access for French firms in China, protection for key sectors such as cognac, and broader guarantees that its companies will not become collateral damage in a wider EU–China confrontation.
Macron’s latest visit comes just days after he hosted Ukraine’s president in Paris to discuss possible ceasefire terms. It also comes on the eve of France taking over the rotating G7 presidency, with an agenda likely to focus on Ukraine, global trade rules, climate, and the role of major emerging economies, including China.
Against that backdrop, the language of “overcoming differences” is not rhetorical flourish. It signals a deliberate attempt to define how far competition can go before it begins to break the system that has underpinned decades of global trade and relative peace.
Analysis
Political and Geopolitical Dimensions
Politically, Macron is walking a tightrope. On one side, France is a core member of NATO, a leading supporter of Ukraine, and a key player in European Union decision-making. On the other, Macron has spent years arguing that Europe must build “strategic autonomy” so it is not permanently dependent on the United States or trapped in a binary choice between Washington and Beijing.
This visit reflects that balancing act. By traveling to Beijing with a large business delegation while warning of the “disintegration” of the international order, Macron is trying to show that engagement with China does not mean abandoning core European interests. The message is that Europe can speak to Beijing directly about Ukraine, trade, and global rules rather than outsourcing these conversations entirely to Washington.
For China, the incentives are different but just as strong. Beijing faces a slowing domestic economy, ongoing tensions with the United States, and a wave of Western efforts to “de-risk” supply chains. Building a closer relationship with France, especially as Paris prepares to lead the G7, helps China argue that it is not isolated and still has influential partners in the West.
On Ukraine, the geopolitics are particularly delicate. Macron wants China to use its “decisive capacity” to influence Moscow toward at least a ceasefire, initially focused on stopping strikes on critical infrastructure. Beijing, however, wants to maintain its deep strategic partnership with Russia while presenting itself as a champion of negotiated peace. That leaves room for symbolic statements and diplomatic initiatives, but less clarity on whether China is prepared to pressure the Kremlin in ways Moscow would actually feel.
Economic and Market Impact
Economically, the stakes are high for both sides. The European Union’s trade deficit with China—around €300 billion last year—has become a political problem as much as a numerical one. European manufacturers complain of a flood of Chinese products, especially in electric vehicles and green technologies, that undercut domestic industry.
France is particularly exposed. Chinese goods account for a large share of its trade deficit, yet French industries—from aerospace and nuclear energy to luxury goods—rely on the Chinese market for growth. Macron’s delegation includes senior business leaders seeking new contracts, joint ventures, and investment openings, even as political leaders talk about de-risking and defending European industry.
The agreements announced during the visit fit this pattern. Cooperation on aerospace, nuclear energy, green industries, and artificial intelligence underscores the depth of economic interdependence. Deals related to panda conservation and cultural exchange add a softer layer, but the core is industrial and technological.
Trade tensions, however, have not vanished. European investigations into Chinese subsidies continue, and Chinese probes into European products—like brandy and meat—remain a pressure point. France has already pushed hard to shield its cognac producers from sweeping Chinese tariffs, and those sector-specific battles are likely to multiply as each side uses trade tools to defend domestic industries.
For markets, the message is mixed. On the one hand, a relatively smooth Macron–Xi summit suggests that both sides want to avoid a sudden rupture. On the other, the underlying issues—subsidies, market access, export controls, and security concerns—are structural. They will not be solved in a single visit, and each flare-up feeds investor uncertainty about the long-term stability of China–Europe economic ties.
Social and Cultural Fallout
Beyond high politics and trade statistics, the visit has social and cultural dimensions that are easy to overlook. In France and across Europe, public attitudes toward China have grown more cautious as concerns about human rights, data security, and economic dependency have risen. At the same time, Chinese students, tourists, and cultural exchanges remain important bridges between societies.
Macron’s itinerary reflects that duality. The symbolism of a formal welcome in the Great Hall of the People sits alongside softer elements like panda diplomacy and engagements with students in Chengdu. These gestures are meant to humanize a relationship often reduced to headline clashes over tariffs or technology.
Yet there is also domestic political risk. In France, critics can argue that prioritizing trade risks downplaying human rights concerns or Europe’s own commitments to democratic values. Others may see the trip as essential economic diplomacy at a time when French industry and jobs depend on access to global markets. Both narratives will shape how the visit is received at home.
In China, state media emphasizes respect for national sovereignty, non-interference, and mutual benefit. That framing reinforces the idea that China is a responsible global actor unfairly targeted by Western protectionism. How citizens perceive France’s role—either as a pragmatic partner or as part of a hostile Western bloc—matters for the long-term social foundation of the relationship.
Technological and Security Implications
The joint focus on sectors like aerospace, nuclear energy, green technology, and artificial intelligence highlights how the China–France relationship now runs straight through some of the world’s most sensitive technologies.
For France and its European partners, these industries are strategic. They relate directly to energy security, military capacity, industrial competitiveness, and the race to lead in AI and clean tech. Partnerships with Chinese companies can bring scale, investment, and joint innovation, but they also create concerns about intellectual property, data flows, and dual-use applications of civilian technologies.
China, for its part, wants to move up the value chain, exporting not just manufactured goods but high-tech systems, standards, and platforms. Cooperation with French firms offers access to advanced expertise and a way to show that it is still integrated into Western-led technological ecosystems.
Security concerns are never far from the surface. European debates over 5G equipment, critical infrastructure, and export controls all inform the background to any new deal. As more technologies become strategically sensitive, the room for pure commercial engagement shrinks, and scrutiny of joint projects intensifies.
What Most Coverage Misses
Much immediate coverage focuses on the visible choreography of the visit: the red carpet in Beijing, the business forums, and the joint statements on peace and cooperation. One crucial element, however, often receives less attention: how this bilateral relationship ripples through the wider European and global system.
First, there is the question of European unity. When France signs major sector-specific deals with China while the European Union as a whole is trying to present a coordinated front on trade and security, other member states worry about being sidelined. If Beijing can peel off key countries with targeted economic incentives, the EU’s leverage as a bloc is weakened. How Paris balances its national interests with the broader European line will matter long after this visit ends.
Second, the visit connects directly to France’s upcoming G7 presidency. What Macron signals in Beijing about his approach to China will shape expectations among fellow G7 members. If France emphasizes engagement and economic cooperation, some partners may fear a softer line; if it foregrounds risk and rivalry, others may worry about escalation. The real impact of this trip may be felt not just in Paris or Beijing, but around the G7 table next year.
Finally, there is China’s own economic trajectory. A slowing Chinese economy, combined with the need to maintain growth and employment at home, gives Beijing incentives to stabilize relations with major trading partners. That background reality may be as important as any formal communiqué in explaining why both sides are suddenly talking more about stability and less about confrontation.
Why This Matters
The immediate stakes of the Macron–Xi meeting are clear: Ukraine, trade, and the shape of global governance. But the consequences go further.
For Europe, this visit is a test of whether it can pursue “strategic autonomy” in practice. If France can maintain a tough line on fair trade and security while still engaging China on Ukraine and economic issues, it strengthens the argument that Europe is a pole in its own right, not just an adjunct to US policy. If the result is mostly symbolic statements with little practical change, critics will see another example of Europe overestimating its leverage.
For China, the meeting is an opportunity to counter narratives of isolation and decoupling. Deepening ties with a leading European power while promising to support peace efforts and expand market access helps Beijing present itself as a central, responsible player in a shifting world order. At the same time, any perception that China is using bilateral deals to undercut EU unity may push Brussels toward tougher collective measures.
Short term, the world will watch for follow-up moves: subsequent French and Chinese statements on Ukraine; signs of real pressure on Moscow; concrete details of the trade and investment agreements; and any shifts in ongoing investigations or tariffs. Longer term, the trajectory of China–Europe relations, the outcome of key elections on both continents, and the evolution of the war in Ukraine will determine whether this visit is remembered as a turning point or a holding pattern.
Key developments to watch include upcoming EU decisions on trade defense measures, France’s formal G7 agenda for next year, further rounds of diplomacy on Ukraine’s ceasefire proposals, and any adjustments to China’s economic policies that affect foreign businesses and market access.
Real-World Impact
A mid-sized French aerospace supplier based near Toulouse, heavily reliant on contracts tied to China-bound aircraft, has spent months worrying about whether rising tensions could jeopardize future orders. News of renewed aerospace cooperation is not a guarantee, but it reduces the immediate risk that political friction will shut the Chinese market to its products, and by extension, its local workforce.
In eastern Ukraine, an energy grid engineer tasked with keeping critical infrastructure functioning through winter follows these developments closely. A ceasefire focused initially on halting strikes against power plants would reshape the calculus of repairs, investments, and personal safety. If China genuinely leans on Russia to accept such limits, the impact could be felt not in conference halls but in the number of nights when the lights stay on.
A French cognac producer, whose sales in China support vineyards, bottling plants, and tourism back home, views trade investigations with alarm. The prospect of punitive tariffs could force layoffs and cut investment. Any exemptions or long-term arrangements that emerge from quiet discussions during the visit may determine whether the business expands or contracts in the next few years.
Meanwhile, a European renewable energy entrepreneur exploring projects in Africa watches China–France talks on green technologies and financing. If Beijing and Paris move toward cooperative funding and joint standards in solar or grid infrastructure, it could open new avenues for cross-border projects. If trade tensions harden into competing blocs, the result may be fragmented markets and duplicated costs that make clean energy harder to scale.
Whats Next?
The meeting between Emmanuel Macron and Xi Jinping is more than a routine diplomatic stop. It is a snapshot of a world in which old assumptions about trade, security, and power are being tested simultaneously.
On one side stands a European power trying to defend its economic and security interests while arguing for strategic autonomy and a stable, rules-based order. On the other stands a rising superpower seeking to maintain growth, manage its partnerships with Russia and the wider world, and resist what it sees as containment. Between them lies a network of supply chains, security commitments, and political expectations that has held together for decades but now shows signs of strain.
Whether China and France can truly “overcome their differences” will not be decided in a single summit. The answer will emerge in how they handle the next set of crises: the next turn in the war in Ukraine, the next trade dispute, the next technological breakthrough or security scare. The signals to watch are not just warm words in Beijing, but tangible shifts in tariffs, market access, diplomatic coordination, and the behavior of other major powers responding to this evolving triangle.
In that sense, this visit is less an endpoint than an early test of whether the world’s key players can adapt their rivalries to a more fragile era without letting the order that underpins their prosperity fall apart
