Gaza’s ‘Ceasefire’ That Isn’t: The Yellow Line, Lebanon Strikes and the Future of the Strip
Israel has pulled troops back to a “yellow line” inside Gaza under a US-brokered ceasefire. But continued airstrikes, a shifting map on the ground, and fresh attacks in Lebanon show how fragile the truce really is – and how much of Gaza’s future is being decided right now.
Key Points
The current Gaza ceasefire hinges on Israel withdrawing to a “yellow line” that splits the strip into zones, while hostages are returned and a longer-term political deal is negotiated.
In practice, Israel still controls well over half of Gaza, the yellow line is inconsistently marked, and reports suggest it is being shifted on the ground, blocking many displaced Palestinians from going home.
Israeli airstrikes have continued inside Gaza, including beyond the agreed line, killing civilians in displacement camps and undermining faith in the ceasefire.
At the same time, Israel is striking multiple towns in southern Lebanon and ordering evacuations ahead of new attacks, raising the risk that the Gaza conflict could still widen into a broader regional war.
Plans to open Gaza’s Rafah crossing as a one-way exit for Palestinians, which Egypt has publicly rejected, are fuelling fears of permanent displacement and a de facto redrawing of Gaza’s borders.
For the UK and Europe, the yellow line is not just a technical military boundary – it is a test of international humanitarian law, long-term policy on Palestine, and the credibility of Western-backed peace plans.
Background and Context
When a ceasefire was finally announced for Gaza in October 2025, it was presented as a turning point after two years of devastating war. Israel’s campaign followed the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, which killed around 1,200 people in Israel and saw hundreds taken hostage. The response in Gaza has been catastrophic: Palestinian deaths now number in the tens of thousands, most of them civilians, with entire neighbourhoods destroyed.
The ceasefire agreement, heavily backed by Washington and regional mediators, was built around a phased process:
Hamas and allied groups would return all remaining hostages.
Israel would pull its forces back to a defined internal boundary – the yellow line.
Later phases would see a further withdrawal, the arrival of an international stabilisation force, and the creation of a transitional authority to run Gaza.
On paper, this was meant to stop the worst fighting while opening space for reconstruction, governance reforms and diplomacy. In reality, violence has never fully stopped. Reports from parliamentary debates in the UK highlight that children are still being killed almost daily even after the ceasefire took effect.
The centrepiece of this uneasy arrangement is the “yellow line” – a boundary that was supposed to be temporary but is increasingly shaping Gaza’s future.
What Has Actually Been Agreed? The Ceasefire and the Yellow Line
The phased withdrawal plan
Under the ceasefire deal, Israel agreed to a staged withdrawal:
Phase one: Israel pulls troops back to the yellow line while hostages are released.
Phase two: A multinational security force begins deploying, and Israel withdraws further to a deeper line.
Phase three: A transitional authority takes over governance, Hamas is meant to be disarmed, and reconstruction begins.
In theory, this sequencing ties security and politics together: Israel gets hostages back and a new security architecture; Palestinians are promised an end to large ground operations and a pathway to self-rule under international oversight.
What the yellow line is supposed to do
The yellow line is meant to separate:
A heavily controlled zone under ongoing Israeli military presence.
A Palestinian-administered zone where civilians can return and aid agencies can operate more freely.
On official diagrams, it appears as a clear boundary. On the ground, it is anything but.
The Yellow Line on the Ground: A Moving, Often Invisible Boundary
A boundary that is only half-real
Reports from journalists, satellite analysts and humanitarian workers point to a messy reality:
Large sections of the yellow line are not physically marked.
Israeli forward positions remain beyond the line, especially around key roads and high ground.
Palestinians say the boundary shifts daily, with military positions moving street by street.
Some analyses suggest Israel effectively controls more than half of Gaza, including most of the coastline and significant agricultural zones.
Life “behind” the line: militias and a postwar laboratory
Behind the yellow line, in zones under Israeli influence, a new and unstable order is emerging:
Israel has cultivated local militias and tribal groups as security partners.
The killing of a key militia figure after a clash over hostages exposed how fragile these arrangements are.
Analysts describe parts of this zone as a “postwar laboratory”, mixing military presence, proxy forces and tight movement controls.
For many Palestinians, this is not a ceasefire but a reconfigured occupation.
Israeli Strikes in Gaza and Lebanon Under the “Truce”
Continued attacks inside Gaza
Although major ground operations have paused, airstrikes and shelling continue:
Strikes have hit displacement camps in areas described as safe zones.
Artillery and naval fire have targeted coastal districts and tent encampments.
Israeli officials often frame these attacks as responses to ceasefire violations by armed groups.
From the civilian perspective, the ceasefire has not delivered safety.
Escalation in southern Lebanon
The northern front has also reignited:
Israeli airstrikes have hit towns across southern Lebanon.
Residents have been ordered to evacuate ahead of further attacks.
Exchanges of fire with Hezbollah continue, calibrated but persistent.
This dual pressure – Gaza and Lebanon – raises the risk of a broader confrontation.
Displacement, Rafah and the Fear of a One-Way Exit
The Rafah crossing dilemma
One of the most sensitive elements of the current phase is the Rafah crossing:
Israel has signalled plans to reopen Rafah only for people leaving Gaza.
Egypt has rejected any arrangement that excludes Palestinian return.
Tens of thousands of people require medical evacuation, yet access remains severely limited.
For Gazans, leaving may mean never coming back.
A population trapped between the line and the border
The yellow line deepens this pressure:
Families attempting to return home are blocked by unclear or shifting boundaries.
Efforts to formalise the line raise fears of a new permanent frontier.
Combined with one-way proposals at Rafah, many Palestinians see the outline of a coerced population movement.
This is why a single line on the map has become a regional flashpoint.
Why It Matters – and Who It Affects
For Palestinians in Gaza
The ceasefire has not delivered peace:
Casualties continue, especially in overcrowded displacement areas.
Homes remain inaccessible across the yellow line.
Political uncertainty dominates: Hamas is weakened but not gone, while alternative governance is being shaped largely without Gazan input.
The danger is a transition from open war to open-ended limbo.
For Israel
For Israel, the yellow line is framed as security:
It reduces troop exposure while preserving leverage inside Gaza.
It supports the government narrative of progress on hostage recovery.
Yet long-term reliance on forward positions and militias risks a drawn-out low-intensity conflict.
This uneasy balance of deterrence and control is politically fragile.
For Lebanon and the wider region
Every strike in Lebanon risks miscalculation. A deadly incident could rapidly escalate into a broader confrontation, drawing in regional powers and inflaming domestic tensions in Beirut.
For the UK and Europe
The situation poses several challenges:
Humanitarian expectations around civilian protection.
Legal scrutiny of arms exports and intelligence cooperation.
Diplomatic credibility, especially after endorsing the ceasefire framework.
For many European publics, Gaza is a test of whether their governments’ human-rights principles carry real weight.
Big Picture: A De Facto Partition of Gaza?
The most troubling possibility is that temporary measures become permanent:
The yellow line and controlled crossings could harden into a new territorial division.
Gaza could be split into a militarised zone under Israeli oversight and a crowded enclave with limited sovereignty.
This would mirror fragmentation patterns seen in the West Bank, entrenching instability rather than resolving it.
Such an arrangement would not end the conflict; it would simply reshape it.
What to Watch Next
1. Hostage negotiations and the next phase
Progress on remaining hostage cases will reveal whether Israel and Palestinian factions are willing to move to deeper stages of the ceasefire plan.
2. Whether the yellow line becomes permanent
Watch for physical fortifications, expanded outposts or long-term infrastructure that signals entrenchment.
3. The final form of the Rafah crossing
A two-way crossing could ease humanitarian strain; a one-way route would intensify population-transfer fears.
4. The Lebanon front
Any shift from calibrated exchanges to heavier bombardment would be a warning sign of regional escalation.
5. UK and European policy
Arms export decisions, aid commitments and diplomatic pressure will indicate whether Western governments still believe the ceasefire can evolve into a political settlement.
Conclusion
The Gaza ceasefire has stopped the full intensity of war, but it has not created peace. The yellow line, Rafah crossing and the Lebanon front each represent choices that could either stabilise or fracture the region further.
For Gazans, the stakes are existential. For Israel, the choices shape its long-term security and legitimacy. For the UK and Europe, this moment is a test of principles versus realpolitik.
The coming weeks will determine whether this ceasefire is a bridge to a political settlement – or the blueprint for a new and unstable status quo.
