Ranking the 2020 Election Rigging Conspiracy Theories: Fact vs. Fiction

Key Points

No Evidence of a Stolen Election:
Despite dozens of allegations, exhaustive reviews and recounts confirmed Joe Biden’s victory in 2020. No proof of widespread fraud or vote-rigging has emerged. More than 60 post-election lawsuits were rejected in court for lack of evidence. Senior officials, including President Trump’s own Attorney General and the federal government’s top election cybersecurity official, stated the 2020 vote was the most secure in U.S. history.

Conspiracy Theories Proliferated:
Numerous conspiracy theories took root after the election. They ranged from claims of dead people voting and ballot box stuffing to fantastical stories of hacked voting machines and foreign satellites altering votes. Each theory was investigated. Some contained a grain of truth, such as isolated improper votes, but none showed fraud remotely capable of changing the election outcome.

Ranking from Most to Least Plausible:
This report ranks the major rigging claims by plausibility, from those with limited, narrow factual grounding to those fully debunked. At the top are isolated voter fraud cases, plausible in tiny numbers but meaningless at scale. In the middle are process-related allegations like mail-in ballot fraud or ballot “dumps,” contradicted by audits. At the bottom are claims of mass vote-switching via machines or foreign intervention, which were definitively discredited.

Origins and Context:
Each conspiracy theory has a backstory. Many were fueled directly by President Trump’s rhetoric and his legal team’s assertions in late 2020. Others spread through social media and fringe online communities. Understanding where these claims came from, and how they were examined, is essential to assessing their credibility.

Real-World Impact:
Belief in “rigged election” narratives deeply affected U.S. politics and public trust. Polls showed roughly 70 percent of Republicans doubted the election’s fairness, a perception that contributed to the January 6, 2021 Capitol attack. Election officials faced harassment and threats. Several states passed tighter voting laws in 2021, driven by fears rooted in these claims. Media organisations that repeated false allegations later faced major defamation lawsuits, including settlements exceeding $787 million.

Background

The 2020 U.S. presidential election was unprecedented not for its result, but for the storm of conspiracy allegations that followed. After losing the election in November 2020, then-President Donald Trump refused to concede and insisted the contest had been “rigged” or “stolen.” His campaign and allies promoted a wide range of fraud claims, from procedural complaints in swing-state cities to elaborate international plots. Rallies and social media activity around “Stop the Steal” created a narrative that the voting process had fundamentally failed.

Election administrators across all 50 states reported a well-run election under extraordinary pandemic conditions. Federal election security officials stated there was no evidence of votes being altered electronically. Attorney General William Barr ordered the Justice Department to pursue any substantial fraud leads, then publicly stated there was no fraud on a scale that could have changed the outcome.

Dozens of lawsuits were filed in battleground states. All failed. More than 60 cases were dismissed or ruled against the plaintiffs, often by Republican-appointed judges, due to lack of credible evidence. State and local officials from both parties reaffirmed vote totals through recounts and audits. In Georgia, a hand recount of roughly five million ballots reaffirmed Biden’s win by 11,779 votes. In Arizona’s Maricopa County, a post-election audit confirmed the accuracy of machine tallies. An independent review in Michigan concluded there was no outside manipulation of voting machines and that an early reporting error was human, not software-related.

Despite this validation, many voters remained unconvinced. Polls showed about 70 percent of Republican voters believed the election was not free or fair. Social media amplified misleading videos and speculative claims. From November 2020 through January 2021, conspiracy theories multiplied. Some echoed long-standing election myths. Others were newly invented narratives born in online fringe spaces.

The consequences were severe. Trust in the electoral process collapsed among large segments of the population. On January 6, 2021, hundreds of Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to halt certification of the results. Election workers later reported increased threats and intimidation. State legislatures passed new voting laws citing election integrity concerns. These developments trace directly to the shadow cast by the conspiracy theories examined below.

Analysis of Major Claims

1. Isolated Illegal Votes (Dead Voters and Double Voting)

Some Basis in Reality, but No Impact on Results

The Claim:
Thousands of illegal votes were allegedly cast using the names of deceased individuals or by voters casting multiple ballots. Lists of supposed dead voters circulated online, and President Trump publicly accused Democrats of stuffing ballot boxes.

Context & Origin:
Claims of dead voters have appeared in U.S. elections for decades. In 2020, social media posts and campaign figures revived them, particularly in Georgia and Pennsylvania. Confusion over mail ballot applications fueled anecdotes suggesting people could vote multiple times.

Evidence & Findings:
Investigations found these claims largely false. Many names belonged to living voters, relatives with similar names, or individuals who died after legally voting. Georgia officials identified only two potential cases involving deceased voters. One confirmed case involved a Pennsylvania man illegally voting for Trump using his deceased mother’s ballot.

Double voting proved similarly rare. Voting systems automatically detect duplicates. Nationwide data showed only a handful of fraud convictions, highlighting how uncommon such cases are.

Even if isolated improper votes occurred, the scale required to alter a national election would require massive coordination without detection. No evidence of such a scheme exists.

Debunked or Unproven?:
Claims of widespread dead or duplicate voting are debunked. Isolated incidents occurred but were statistically insignificant.

Plausibility (Rank #1):
This is the most plausible claim only because individual fraud can occur. There is no evidence of organised or outcome-changing fraud.

2. Mail-In Ballot Fraud and Ballot Harvesting

Unproven Fears vs. a Longstanding Process

The Claim:
Mail-in voting was portrayed as inherently insecure, enabling counterfeit ballots, ballot harvesting, or mass double voting. Late-counted mail ballots favouring Biden were cited as evidence of manipulation.

Context & Origin:
President Trump repeatedly attacked mail voting throughout 2020, despite its long history of use in many states. After the election, rumours spread about ballots being mailed indiscriminately or arriving mysteriously at counting centres.

Evidence & Findings:
Mail voting includes extensive safeguards: voter-specific barcodes, signature verification, and ballot tracking. Fraud rates have historically been extremely low. Audits in battleground states found no evidence of widespread mail ballot fraud. Administrative errors occurred but were quickly corrected.

Debunked or Unproven?:
Claims that mail voting swung the election are debunked. No substantial fraud was found.

Plausibility (Rank #2):
The theory gained traction due to intuition, not evidence. Decades of data and 2020 audits show mail voting is secure.

3. Poll Watcher Obstruction and Ballot “Dumps”

Misunderstandings of Process, Not Malicious Plots

The Claim:
Republican poll watchers were allegedly expelled while hidden ballots were counted in secret, producing late-night vote spikes for Biden.

Context & Origin:
Disputes over observer proximity and COVID restrictions were misrepresented as exclusion. Edited videos and misunderstood vote reporting schedules fueled suspicion.

Evidence & Findings:
Republican observers were present. Vote spikes reflected normal batch reporting of mail ballots. Videos cited as proof showed routine procedures or unrelated activity. Hand recounts confirmed reported totals.

Debunked or Unproven?:
These claims are overwhelmingly debunked.

Plausibility (Rank #3):
They rely on misunderstanding election procedures rather than evidence.

4. Voting Machine Manipulation

Thoroughly Debunked by Audits

The Claim:
Voting machines allegedly flipped votes from Trump to Biden through software manipulation.

Context & Origin:
A reporting error in a Michigan county was mischaracterised as machine fraud. Lawyers and commentators amplified claims involving foreign ties and secret algorithms.

Evidence & Findings:
Hand recounts, audits, and forensic reviews found no evidence of vote manipulation. Paper ballots matched machine tallies. Courts rejected claims for lack of proof.

Debunked or Unproven?:
Fully debunked.

Plausibility (Rank #4):
Highly implausible given extensive verification and paper trails.

5. Foreign Interference Fantasies

Outlandish and Disproven

The Claim:
Foreign governments or secret intelligence programs allegedly hacked U.S. elections using satellites or cyber tools.

Context & Origin:
These theories emerged from fringe online communities and were amplified by a handful of public figures.

Evidence & Findings:
U.S. intelligence agencies confirmed no foreign actor altered votes or voting infrastructure. Voting machines were not internet-connected in ways that would allow such attacks.

Debunked or Unproven?:
Entirely debunked.

Plausibility (Rank #5):
Essentially zero credibility.

6. Miscellaneous Fringe Claims

No Basis in Fact

The Claim:
Sharpies invalidated ballots, secret watermarks trapped fraudsters, or ballots were secretly destroyed.

Evidence & Findings:
Sharpies were recommended and safe. No watermark program existed. Alleged destroyed ballots were misidentified or unrelated materials.

Debunked or Unproven?:
Definitively debunked.

Plausibility (Rank #6):
Least plausible; modern election myths.

Real-World Impact of the Conspiracy Theories

These claims eroded trust, contributed directly to January 6, fuelled threats against election workers, prompted restrictive voting laws, triggered major defamation lawsuits, and deepened political division. While democratic institutions ultimately held, the social damage remains significant.

Conclusion

The 2020 U.S. presidential election was decided fairly and accurately. All major claims of systemic fraud collapsed under scrutiny. Isolated errors and rare illegal votes occurred, as in every election, but none approached the scale needed to change results.

The persistence of these conspiracy theories shows how difficult it is to restore trust once misinformation takes root. The lesson of 2020 is not that democracy failed, but that it survived — and that truth requires constant defence.

The truth endured. The challenge now is ensuring it does so again.