Geopolitics

Provides an in-depth analysis of power dynamics, conflicts, diplomacy, and global competition.

James Taylor James Taylor

Countries Most at Risk of Collapse by 2040: Fault Lines in a Fractured World

Countries Most at Risk of Collapse by 2040: Fault Lines in a Fractured World

Over the next 15 years, a small group of states faces a real risk of severe breakdown: governments losing control of territory, basic services collapsing, or even land itself disappearing under rising seas. From Somalia and Sudan to Haiti and Tuvalu, overlapping crises are pushing already-fragile countries toward a dangerous threshold.

The tension is stark: global systems assume most countries will remain intact, yet conflict, climate change, debt, and demographic pressure are all hitting the weakest states at once. When institutions are already brittle, those shocks do not just cause hardship; they can push a state into partial or outright collapse.

This article looks at countries most at risk of serious failure by 2040, drawing on fragility indices, conflict trends, climate risk assessments, and forward-looking scenarios. It explains what “collapse” actually means in practice, why predictions are always uncertain, and how different pathways—from civil war to rising seas—can bring a state to the brink.

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James Taylor James Taylor

What Would Happen If the Yellowstone Supervolcano Erupted?

What Would Happen If the Yellowstone Supervolcano Erupted?

Deep under Yellowstone National Park lies one of Earth’s most famous “sleeping giants”: a vast volcanic system that has produced some of the biggest eruptions in geological history. New research in 2024–2025 has sharpened the picture of what sits beneath the park, including a volatile-rich magma “cap” that helps vent gas and heat without triggering disaster

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