Geopolitics

Provides an in-depth analysis of power dynamics, conflicts, diplomacy, and global competition.

James Taylor James Taylor

What If Osama bin Laden Was Never Caught?

How the War on Terror Might Have Shifted After 2011

On the night of May 1–2, 2011, U.S. forces raid a walled compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan. In real history, the raid leads to Osama bin Laden's death. In this scenario, he evades capture by not being in the compound when the helicopters arrive.

That single absence changes the emotional centre of the War on Terror. It removes closure without removing risk. It also creates a sharper dilemma for Washington: a sovereignty-violating raid has happened on Pakistani soil, but the prize is missing.

The reader will see how a failed “endgame” reshapes U.S.–Pakistan trust, intelligence tradecraft, domestic politics, and jihadist propaganda. The world does not become calmer. It becomes less legible.

The rules stay strict. The leaders, institutions, technology, and geography remain unchanged. Only one thing changes: bin Laden is not found in Abbottabad that night.

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