History

Thought-provoking, interpretive history essays that use the past to illuminate the present. These articles are speculative and exploratory – offering a modern lens on historical events, ideas, and figures

James Taylor James Taylor

What If Ukraine Was Never Invaded?

What If Ukraine Was Never Invaded: How Europe Might Have Changed After 2022

At the end of February 2022, Russian forces are in place around Ukraine. The world is braced for war. Then the order does not come.

In this scenario, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine never begins. Russia keeps coercion, threats, and grey-zone pressure on the table, but it does not cross the line into a nationwide assault.

That single restraint prevents a mass battlefield shock. It also creates a different danger: a long standoff where nobody can relax, nobody can fully invest, and every capital must plan for a war that might still be one decision away.

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